Handicapping Sprinters and Route Runners
Distance –
There are two basic distance type sprints and routes. Rare is the horse that
excels at both. Most trainers are better training for one type or the other.
A horse which is worked to a distance race will have a different workout schedule
than sprinter.
Routes are a mile or over generally. However on some short tracks
lesser distances constitute a route race. There are steeple chases which are 2 Miles and
constitue jumping also. I don't do steeple chases although they are fun to watch.
Sprinters
The perfect workout schedule is three workouts before the race spaced one week
apart. For first or second timers a workout out two back is good one back says this
horses is having problems with the gate. This in my opinion is the best
handicapping point. I find chalk and shots like this. I once bet a 35 to 1 and
told my friends to also and bet hit. Bragging can be fun too.
He was the only horse to have been worked to the race.
Moving from a sprint to a route is OK, especially when if the horse is two or three years old. This is a normal progression to longer distance.
A move from a route to a sprint is bad. The horse may be in this race as a workout
or a favor to the track secretary. Although, often old horses will switch back and
forth in distance especially in cheap races. The trainer can do this in claimers
because older horses don’t get claimed a lot.
A closer in a route seldom has much chance when placed in a sprint.
A little more than 70% of all races are sprints.
A sprint race is less than one mile and not more than one turn.
Conventional wisdom holds that a fast breaker,
also known as early speed a horse that can set a rapid pace for the first quarter-mile and take the lead while saving ground on the rail, has a distinct advantage over the competition.
But what happens when the race is riddled with fast breakers as it most often is? The early leaders will thwart each other's effort and begin to back up in the final stretch. They will also create traffic problems for themselves and quickly run out of real estate to correct the mistake.
This is why in a sprint an inner lane with lone early speed is usually a bet.
Two Turns (route)
Question one in a route race. Can the horse “make it”? This is a good question to ask about a horse that has only run in sprints. Most horses start with sprints and progress to longer distance. If, a two or three year old is trying his first two turn race then he has a better chance than an older horse attempting his first successful two turn race.
A good way to spot a sprinter who is ready to win a route race is to look at the way the sprinter closed in his last race. A horse that closed hard or won easy in recent sprint races has a good chance to win.
The best races are generally route races. There is less luck as the horses have less chance of getting caught in traffic.
Turf Paradise has an unusual thing which happens in most meets. It seems that usually one jockey will win %35 or more of the mile races. At one time I only bet jockeys named Scott at TP. It was a profitable superstition.
Any race over one mile and a quarter is a puzzler. Today most winners at one and one half mile are specialists, which only run extended distances. That’s what makes the Belmont Stakes race. It is probably the only time that many of the horses entered will ever run that distance (1 ½ mile).
Bet Route trainers in route races:
TRAINER: 3rd off layoff ( 44 20% -0.45 ) Claiming ( 141 26% -0.39 ) Routes ( 537
24% -0.10 )>
Bet Sprint trainers in Sprint races:
TRAINER:46-90daysAway ( 67 27% -0.32 ) Allowance ( 89 18% -0.72 ) Sprints ( 377
24% -0.12 ) Dirt starts ( 429 24% -0.21 )>
